Sacramento River Fall Chinook

The Council has taken an active role in managing Sacramento River fall Chinook (SRFC), a key species for West Coast salmon fisheries, for long-term sustainability. In recent years, efforts have focused on reevaluating the SRFC conservation objective and management reference points through a series of coordinated actions, including technical reviews, agency collaboration, and the formation of the ad-hoc Sacramento River fall Chinook Workgroup (SRWG).

The timeline below outlines key milestones in this ongoing process.

Sacramento River Fall Chinook

April 2022: The Council included, among other topics, a review of the SRFC conservation objective as an item for the 2022 Salmon Methodology Review.

November 2022: The Council received reports from advisory bodies on the outcomes of the October Salmon Methodology Review, including on the literature review that evaluated the SRFC conservation objective. The literature review described the basis of the conservation objective, originally developed in the 1980s using data from the 1950s–1980s, and found it difficult to replicate the current objective using historical data.

The Scientific and Statistical Committee (SSC) and Salmon Technical Team (STT) both supported prioritizing the development of a new conservation objective due to ongoing conservation concerns and the importance of SRFC to salmon fisheries south of Cape Falcon. Additional discussions included the potential for new cohort reconstruction models incorporating age structure.

April 2023: The Council requested that the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW), and Council staff collaborate on a scoping report exploring potential pathways to reevaluate SRFC conservation objectives.

June 2023: Following review of the scoping report, the Council established the SRWG. Draft Terms of Reference were adopted, and the SRWG was tasked with:

1. Delivering a summary report by spring 2024 detailing scoping efforts for a revised conservation objective, harvest control rule, and reference point alternatives.
2. Providing updates on recommended next steps, timelines, and processes for evaluating the SRFC conservation framework.

June 2024: The SRWG provided their first report to the Council. The report included an evaluation of the current reference points (F_MSY, S_MSY, MSST), conservation objective, and harvest control rule.  The report also offered preliminary alternatives for future management measures.

September 2024: The Council received an update from the SRWG on two preliminarily selected methodology review topics and a report developed by Council staff that  described a proposed process for updating the SRFC management framework (reference points, conservation objective, and harvest control rule). The Council opted not to move the preliminarily selected topics forward for methodology review and discussed a desire to further explore updating the SRFC management framework through the Fishery Management Plan (FMP) amendment process.

November 2024:  The SRWG provided their second report to the Council.  The Council provided guidance on how to integrate the outcomes of the 2024 Salmon Methodology Review into future SRFC management.

November 2025: The Council reviewed a report (and appendices) developed by the SRWG on their progress to date and two documents developed by Council staff that outlined the expertise needed and tentative timeline for the development of a SRFC FMP Amendment (Attachment 1 and Attachment 2). Attachment 1 also described that the scientific elements of the FMP amendment will require peer review and described different kinds of peer review processes the Council could consider.

The Council expressed support for an independent peer-review process focused on determining an updated S_MSY value. They recommended that the peer-review body begin with a neutral evaluation of all four approaches analyzed by the SRWG, as presented in its report, and potentially work iteratively with the SRWG to develop the best recommendation for an updated S_MSY value. The Council also advised that the peer-review body be composed primarily of individuals not currently involved in the PFMC process, to ensure neutrality and avoid conflicts of interest. Potential reviewers could include experts from the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, the Center for Independent Experts, academic institutions, or other relevant organizations.

The Council requested that staff develop draft Terms of Reference (TORs) for a peer-review body for the Council to review and provide additional feedback on at a future meeting.

March 2026: The Council discussed the draft TORs under the Membership Appointments agenda item, particularly with a focus on the expertise needed and the seats to be represented on the panel and provided feedback for further consideration at their April 2026 meeting.

April 2026: The Council adopted the TOR approved as presented in Supplemental Attachment 4, with several refinements to improve clarity and specificity. These include adding a reference to the peer review process in the title, explicitly naming the current methodology in the description of the scope, incorporating “experience in reference point estimation methods” into the desired qualifications for peer review panelists, and granting Council staff discretion to make minor editorial updates for consistency.

The TOR outline a public peer review process in which an independent peer review panel will evaluate the scientific merits of a ratio approach to re-estimate S_MSY (S_MSY= F_MSY × S_{M P}), and four approaches identified by the Sacramento River Fall Chinook Workgroup (SRWG) to determine the S_MP (the escapement that maximizes production) to be used in this formula. The review will consider each method’s assumptions, uncertainties, and overall suitability. If the panel concludes the S_MSY= F_MSY× S_MP approach is not scientifically suitable, the panel may recommend an alternative method or advise that the SRWG recommend a different approach.

In finalizing the TOR, the Council considered input from its Scientific and Statistical Committee, Salmon Technical Team, Salmon Advisory Subpanel, and public comments.

The Council also directed staff to revise the SRWG TOR to include participation in the peer review panel as part of the group’s responsibilities. The revised SRWG TOR will be provided for Council adoption in June 2026 under the Membership Appointments agenda item. Lastly, the Council provided direction to staff to begin planning for the peer review process, which is scheduled to begin in mid-summer 2026.

Sacramento River Fall Chinook Rebuilding Plan

June 18, 2018: NMFS notified the Council SRFC is overfished. In response, the Council directed the STT and collaborators to develop a rebuilding plan for Council consideration within one year.

April 2019: The Council adopted the Rebuilding Plan as draft for public review.

June 2019: The Council adopted the SRFC Rebuilding Plan.

September 2021: NMFS notified the Council SRFC is rebuilt.

Council correspondence related to Sacramento River fall Chinook can be found here.